Hello!

Hello!

I’m Maggie

Hello!

I’m Maggie

Nomially,
“Staff Research Engineer” at GitHub Next

Hello!

I’m Maggie

More accurately,
 design engineer

GitHub Next

The R&D labs team
Where is the industry is headed? What should GitHub do next?

CleanShot 2026-10-13 at 16.21.00@2x

GitHub Next

The R&D labs team
Where is the industry is headed? What should GitHub do next?

Other than fix uptime.
No, I don’t work on infra.
Plz don’t ask me.

CleanShot 2026-10-13 at 16.21.00@2x
My past titles

Illustrator
Art Director
UI/UX Designer
Product Designer
Design Engineer

A very quick pre-amble

What is a design engineer?

It is not

Making fancy microinteractions and posting them to twitter

It is not

Making fancy microinteractions and posting them to twitter

That is not a job.

My preferred definition

 A designer deeply involved in the technical craft & material of software

You help make decisions about functionality and architecture, in code

Design engineers should:

01
understand the material of software beyond interfaces

State, data flow, databases, auth, APIs, algorithms, AI models, servers, latency, etc.

02create a bridge between design and engineering
03make decisions about functionality and architecture: how the software works as well as how it looks
Granola Design Engineer Night15 October 2026

Fortune Telling
and Speculative Design

For fun and profit

Maggie Appleton GitHub Next

We’re in a weird time. Everyone’s got whiplash from the speed of progress.

Hard to understand today’s reality, let alone figure out how to react.

Why even attempt to predict the future? (clearly a fool’s errand)

CleanShot 2026-10-13 at 14.17.37@2x
Everyone needs a speculative designer scout mindset right now.

We can’t just give up or opt out because things are moving too fast. We need to think like fortune tellers and attempt to crystal ball.

Design engineers are the perfect people to figure out the shape of the future.

Uniquely positioned to prototype theories of the future in convincing ways.

Agents can “draw the rest of the owl” enough for you to make proof-of-concepts without full-stack skills (although they help).

What do I know about this?

I’ve been right and early on a few future predictions

CleanShot 2026-10-14 at 10.54.07@2x
Maggie speaking on stage at Causal Islands in Toronto, April 2023
The Expanding Dark Forest and Generative AI — April 2023 title slide
Maggie Appleton speaking on stage at Local-First Conference in Berlin, 30 May 2024 Home-Cooked Software and Barefoot Developers — Local-First Conference, Berlin, May 2024
01How GitHub Next does speculative designOur team’s whole job is trying to figure out the next big shift
02Practical tools to do this yourselfPractical techniques to survey the landscape, identify what you’re seeing, draw conclusions, and make them tangible.
01

How GitHub Next does speculative design

Labs work looks glamorous from the outside, and some of it is.

The stereotypical dream of labs work

Play around and make prototypes all day

Without having to worry about shipping to production

The stereotypical dream of labs work

Play around and make prototypes all day

A little, but sadly not really.

The stereotypical dream of labs work

We do make lots of prototypes

But, we also need to:

1prove our theories
2have good intuition and data
3play politics
4have a credible exit to production

obviously

The actual job

1Notice
Look around at the world, notice trends and patterns.
2Extrapolate
Extrapolate from them, and accurately predict the future.
3Prototype and convince
Build compelling prototypes that convince other this is how the future will unfold. Show what the right strategic play in it would be.
4Political tactics
Convince leadership and the rest of the org your ideas are legit and should be chased

The actual job

1Notice
Look around at the world, notice trends and patterns.
2Extrapolate
Extrapolate from them, and accurately predict the future.
3Prototype and convince
Build compelling prototypes that convince other this is how the future will unfold. Show what the right strategic play in it would be.
4Political tactics
Convince leadership and the rest of the org your ideas are legit and should be chased/funded

is actually hard

The political struggles are real...

1Busy product and engineering teams already have their own roadmap
2Your work suggests they do a 180 and abandon everything the care about and planned to build
3You work will threaten some egos. “Not invented here” syndrome

The political struggles are real...

1Busy product and engineering teams already have their own roadmap
2Your work suggests they do a 180 and abandon everything the care about and planned to build
3You work will threaten some egos. “Not invented here” syndrome
A whole different talk
02

Practical tools for speculative design

Ways to think harder, spot trends early, and properly explore what they mean

The tools

01The futures cone
Understand what area of the future your prototype is exploring
02Collect weak signals
Collect and notice things. Look for themes across everything
03Second and third order effects
Assume X is true, then ask what happens next.
04Play with your ideas
Explore assumptions by inverting, splitting, maximising, minimising your ideas
05Artefacts from the future
How to describe them and how to design them.
06Public, concrete theories
Write them down, tell other people, and back them up with data.

The futures cone

After Voros (2003), building on Hancock and Bezold (1994)
PossiblePlausibleProbablePreferableNow
01The futures cone

The futures cone

After Voros (2003), building on Hancock and Bezold (1994)
PossiblePlausibleProbablePreferableNow
01The futures cone
Pasted image

The futures cone

After Voros (2003), building on Hancock and Bezold (1994)
PossiblePlausibleProbablePreferableNow
01The futures cone
Pasted imagePasted image

Weak signals

Early signs of change that are plausible, novel, significant and timely.

Collect them, pay attention to them, and look for themes across them.

02COLLECT WEAK SIGNALS

Weak signals

Toys and prototypes, hot takes, product announcements, arXiv papers, newsletters, podcasts, VC cash flow, startups, economic trends, your own experiments and experience

Finally get rewarded for being chronically online

(Sorry, but for AI research work, yes you do need to be on X and Hacker News)

Post by Flo Crivello on X, 9 October 2026: a global keyboard shortcut that summarises what's on screen in 100ms using a Cerebras model
02COLLECT WEAK SIGNALS

Weak signals

Toys and prototypes, hot takes, product announcements, arXiv papers, newsletters, podcasts, VC cash flow, startups, economic trends, your own experiments and experience

Finally get rewarded for being chronically online

(Sorry, but for AI research work, yes you do need to be on X and Hacker News)

Post by Flo Crivello on X, 9 October 2026: a global keyboard shortcut that summarises what's on screen in 100ms using a Cerebras modelCleanShot 2026-10-14 at 15.21.08@2x
02COLLECT WEAK SIGNALS

Weak signals

Toys and prototypes, hot takes, product announcements, arXiv papers, newsletters, podcasts, VC cash flow, startups, economic trends, your own experiments and experience

Finally get rewarded for being chronically online

(Sorry, but for AI research work, yes you do need to be on X and Hacker News)

Post by Flo Crivello on X, 9 October 2026: a global keyboard shortcut that summarises what's on screen in 100ms using a Cerebras modelCleanShot 2026-10-14 at 15.21.08@2xCleanShot 2026-10-14 at 16.09.32@2xCleanShot 2026-10-14 at 16.11.21@2x
02COLLECT WEAK SIGNALS

Weak signals

Toys and prototypes, hot takes, product announcements, arXiv papers, newsletters, podcasts, VC cash flow, startups, economic trends, your own experiments and experience

Finally get rewarded for being chronically online

(Sorry, but for AI research work, yes you do need to be on X and Hacker News)

Post by Flo Crivello on X, 9 October 2026: a global keyboard shortcut that summarises what's on screen in 100ms using a Cerebras modelCleanShot 2026-10-14 at 15.21.08@2xCleanShot 2026-10-14 at 16.09.32@2xCleanShot 2026-10-14 at 16.11.21@2xCleanShot 2026-10-14 at 16.10.04@2x
02COLLECT WEAK SIGNALS
Pasted image

What can we conclude?

Post by Flo Crivello on X, 9 October 2026: a global keyboard shortcut that summarises what's on screen in 100ms using a Cerebras modelCleanShot 2026-10-14 at 15.21.08@2xCleanShot 2026-10-14 at 16.09.32@2xCleanShot 2026-10-14 at 16.11.21@2xCleanShot 2026-10-14 at 16.10.04@2x
02COLLECT WEAK SIGNALS

What can we conclude?

1We’ve been sleeping on non-LLM intelligence: decision models, classifiers and embeddings
2Models orders of magnitude faster and cheaper than frontier models unlock completely different use cases
3Rise in local, always-on intelligence
4Verbose agent outputs and overwhelm still very unsolved
Post by Flo Crivello on X, 9 October 2026: a global keyboard shortcut that summarises what's on screen in 100ms using a Cerebras modelCleanShot 2026-10-14 at 15.21.08@2xCleanShot 2026-10-14 at 16.09.32@2xCleanShot 2026-10-14 at 16.11.21@2xCleanShot 2026-10-14 at 16.10.04@2x
02COLLECT WEAK SIGNALS

Second and third order effects

Take the observation and ask what happens next and next and next

The thingSecond-orderThird-order
03SECOND AND THIRD ORDER EFFECTS

Second and third order effects

Take the observation and ask what happens next and next and next

Second-orderThird-order
03SECOND AND THIRD ORDER EFFECTS
OpenClawMac miniMuse

Sandboxed machines and always-on proactive agents

OpenClaw, Muse, etc.

03SECOND AND THIRD ORDER EFFECTS
We give up on CAPTCHAs and accept that personal agents become the main way people browse the web
OpenClawMac miniMuse

Sandboxed machines and always-on proactive agents

OpenClaw, Muse, etc.

03SECOND AND THIRD ORDER EFFECTS
OpenClawMac miniMuse
We give up on CAPTCHAs and accept that personal agents become the main way people browse the web
Sites are designed machine-first: structured data, less concern for visual design
New advertising infra: agents negotiate ad-for-access deals

Play with your ideas

Doing (cheesy) structured exercises to think deeply about your theories of the future and understand your assumptions.

04Play with your ideas
Invert itList what you’re assuming, then invert each one.
We prompt the agents
→ the agents prompt us
We build the software with agents
→ the software builds itself
Split itBreak the idea down into parts and list the attributes of the idea. Change one part at a time
OpenClaw: sandbox + memory + permissions + initiative.

Can the agent share memories within a team or family?
Can the agent tactfully forget sensitive facts or details?
Could an agent choose to delete evidence to protect its human?
04Play with your ideas
Maximise and minimisePlay out extreme versions of the future, in both directions.
Max: Running a thousand agents a day costs £1. What’s possible? Min: Agent intelligence becomes 10x more expensive. We have to ration. How do we adapt?
BrutethinkPick something unrelated and force it to match your idea.
Seasonal harvest: agent work happens in seasons. What kind of work maps to which season? Does your agent only pick what’s ripe?Postal service: how do agents mail each other? Who is the Royal Mail for agents?
04Play with your ideas
Pasted imagePasted image

Artefacts from the future

Make provocative artefacts that make your potential future feel tangible and real

Also called “diegetic prototypes”

05artefacts from the future

Artefacts from the future

Make provocative artefacts that make your potential future feel tangible and real

Cricket Crunch by Julian Bleeker of the Near Future Lab, 2020

05artefacts from the future
Pasted image
Pasted imagePasted image
Pasted imageimage
05artefacts from the future

What artefact would make this future evocative?

Playful, provocative, interesting, and specific, over “realistic”

Can be images, objects, adverts, specific interface patterns: changelogs, code review, software updates, errors, warnings.

Failure states often reveal more than happy paths

Pasted image
Soren Iverson
Pasted image
Soren Iverson
Pasted imagePasted image

Different prototypes for different jobs (and audiences)

Moderate, near-future,  “realistic” artefacts

Crazy, far-future, speculative, “impractical” artefacts

05artefacts from the future

Make your theories public and concrete

01

Use writing and conference talks to build theories. Write to clarify.

02

Tell people your theories. If it comes true, you get cred. If it doens’t no one remembers.

03

Back it up with data. The pressure of telling people and public debate will make you research it properly.

04Play with your ideas

GitHub Next is hiring!

Design engineers / very senior front-end perfectionist with good design taste. Please come talk to me or message us after:

image

@idangazit

@mappletons

CleanShot 2026-10-13 at 16.21.00@2x

Thank you.

maggieappleton.com

githubnext.com